Today Frozen Garlic came out with a total home run of an analysis: This is the stuff that the Froze is absolutely brilliant at. Absolutely a must read.
I’m always relieved when his analysis is in the ballpark of where mine is. I’ve been thinking a lot recently, and looking at the numbers, and coming up with the conclusion that this election is going to resemble the last one in both the presidential and legislative elections. My current prediction on the legislative seats has the KMT roughly where they were last time, plus or minus a few seats (if I had to pick a five seat spread, I’m now at about 33-37 as things stand now, but frankly I think the trend puts it more along the lines of 31-36). Similarly, the DPP will roughly in the ballpark of last time. The unknown is the third parties and independents. Like The Froze I think they won’t get much in the geographical districts (independents like Hung Tzu-yung, Freddy Lim and Fu Kun-chi in Hualien might win, though–but they’re likely to vote with the DPP and KMT in the legislature). I think a lot of people will consider third parties on the party list, but will a lot vote for no-hope parties like the Trees Party, or will they vote strategically for the TPP, NPP, PFP? I think a lot of people want the third parties to do much better, but I don’t know if we’ll see that in practice. Still holding to rough estimate of 9-12 third party and independents total.
Picture: Independent Hung Tzu-yung and Taiwan People’s Party Chang Jui-tsang are two of many candidates vying for the Taichung 3 seat.