Taiwan’s Frozen Garlic: Aggregated Presidential Polls

It still isn’t clear what the impact of Han’s call to ruin polling will be. We have had several new polls published this week, but (strangely) all but two conducted at least part of their interviewing in the days before Han’s statement. Only an Apple Daily and a Green Party poll are entirely in the post-statement period. In both, Tsai led by more than 30%. In the Apple poll, Han went down about 4% while Tsai went up about 9%. That would imply that at least 5% of previously undecided voters turned to Tsai. In the Green Party poll, Han went down 10% while Tsai only went up 3%. This is not quite the same picture.

It could be that most Han supporters are continuing to answer surveys as normal. We political junkies tend to overestimate how much ordinary people pay attention to the latest developments in politics.

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