Frozen Garlic: The state of the polls: 2019 vs 2015

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I think it is also notable that Tsai’s support is slightly higher this year than it was four years ago. In 2015, Tsai only broke 50% in two polls. This year, she has broken 50% in the three-way race in eleven polls, five of which were completed by Nov 28. (She also broke 50% in several two-way polls before Soong entered the race.) Since Soong is polling well below his 2015 levels, it is entirely plausible that Tsai could win by the same 25% margin while also beating her 2016 results by 3-5%, say 61%-36%-3%. Remember, the margin in the polls has historically been a pretty good predictor for the final vote margin, even though there are no undecided votes in the final tally. It doesn’t always work out exactly that way, but it is more likely than any other outcome.

After staring at the polls for a long time, I’m coming to expect a substantial DPP victory in both the presidential and legislative races. It may be even larger than the 2016 victory.

Strangely, no one wants to hear this conclusion.

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The state of the polls: 2019 vs 2015

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