Frozen Garlic: The first “debate” is over

This year, we are scheduled to have three of these CEC policy forums and then (I think) one more traditional debate. Arranging the schedule in this way is very advantageous to Tsai. Han needs a knockout, and this schedule minimizes the possibility that he will get one. Since the policy forums don’t provide much opportunity for a candidate to back their opponent into a corner, a dramatic win is unlikely. Now that we have finished the first forum, fewer and fewer people will pay attention to the next two forums. The first one was pretty boring, so why would you want to sit through two more of those? By the time the traditional debate rolls around, people will have had three opportunities to watch the candidates on stage. I somehow don’t expect there to be a whole lot of people watching. And even if Tsai does commit a gaffe, it will just be one mistake over several hours of TV presentations.

One of the traditional perils of debates for incumbents is that they are overconfident.

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