Frozen Garlic: Aggregated Presidential Polls

I was wary of putting Hong Kong events on the timeline, since it makes it look as if what is happening in Taiwan is a direct result of events in Hong Kong. Of course, Taiwan’s relationship with China (broadly conceived) would have been the focal point of this election no matter what happened in Hong Kong. However, the Hong Kong protests were, in fact, the way the China cleavage was introduced into the election this year, so it is reasonable to look at how events in Hong Kong correlated with polling in Taiwan.

As for the new polls, there have been three since my last update. Tsai leads by 30-35% in all three. To put it bluntly, Han’s polling numbers are in free fall. This might be because he has told his supporters not to participate (or to lie about their intentions if they do), but it could also be due to the recent spate of horrible news for him. We can’t tell for sure right now which is the more important cause, though I might try to sort this out in a separate post.

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