In the annual Preventive Priorities Survey released by the New York-based the Council on Foreign Relations’ Center for Preventive Action (CPA), American foreign policy experts assessed the likelihood and impact of 30 potential conflicts that could emerge or escalate next year.
The CPA then categorized the scenarios in three tiers — high, moderate, and low — in order of priority for U.S. leaders.
One of the 30 contingencies identified was “a crisis between the United States and China over Taiwan, as a result of China’s intensifying political and economic pressure surrounding Taiwan’s elections in 2020.”
The survey showed, however, that the likelihood of such a scenario is “low” but if it does occur the impact on the U.S. will be “moderate,” therefore, it was categorized a Tier II concern.
Another contingency of concern to the U.S. is an armed confrontation over disputed maritime areas in the South China Sea between China and one or more of the other regional claimants, according to the survey.
The U.S.’ biggest concerns overseas were listed as confrontation with Iran, North Korea, or China in the South China Sea, the report showed.
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